User talk:Doctorcherokee

Welcome to the Wikipedia

Good edit, here are some links I find useful

Feel free to ask me anything the links and talk pages don't answer. You can sign your name by typing 4 tildes, likes this: ~~~~.

Cheers, Sam [Spade] 04:42, 21 May 2004 (UTC)[reply]

Deletion warning

I've listed Image:Consanguinity chart.jpg for deletion as the png version is much better. Zeimusu | (Talk page) 10:54, 2 Jun 2005 (UTC) A question I asked on May 9, 2006 [1]

TV series -- Reliving High School

I'm trying to remember the name of a TV series but I cannot. Its premise is the main character (or characters) having the chance to travel back in time and relive high school or something to that effect. I believe it was cancelled soon after it premiered, and it had an interesting title. It aired in the past few years. And it's not Freaks and Geeks or How I Met Your Mother! :) --Doctorcherokee 01:06, 9 May 2006 (UTC)

There were two shows like that in 2002: That Was Then IMDb and Do Over IMDb. --Metropolitan90 02:32, 9 May 2006 (UTC)

Super Greg

I asked a question on the Ref Desk about a weird 80's European video. You were correct...the character was one of Sacha Baron Cohen's. I finally found it..."Super Greg." Not on Wikipedia currently. Anyway, just wanted to let you know you were right! --Doctorcherokee 12:46, 6 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Eh, thanks sorry I wasn't more specific at the time. I just thought that he had a whole bunch of "pseudo-characters" he'd done from time to time, so when you said it looked like him, I figured maybe... --Cody.Pope 00:18, 7 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Image:Dennis_Miller.png

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Fair use rationale for Image:Baron_samedi.png

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United States Carriers' Angled Flight Decks

A question I asked on October 27, 2007

Does anyone know the first United States Carrier to have an INITIAL built-in angled flight deck? A lot of them were fitted later but I can't seem to find which was the first one to have an angled deck from the beginning.

--Doctorcherokee 01:57, 27 October 2007 (UTC)[reply]

The article Flight deck states that the angled flight deck "was tested on the American aircraft carrier USS Antietam (CVA-36), and subsequently adapted as the SCB-125 upgrade for the Essex class and SCB-110/110A for the Midway class. The design of the Forrestal class was modified immediately upon the success of the Antietam configuration, with Forrestal and Saratoga modified while under construction to incorporate the angled deck." So it looks like USS Forrestal (CV-59), while initially laid down with an axial deck, was the first carrier to be built with an angled deck. USS Ranger (CV-61) was the first built with an angled deck from the keel up. - Eron ^Talk 02:46, 27 October 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Donald Duck "Hair Tonic Get Rich Scheme Comic"

Hello, there's an old Carl Barks Donald Duck comic (likely 50's or 60's) that involves a get-rich scheme by Donald to buy hair tonic, claim it doesn't work, and then return it for double his money. I think it involves, at one point, someone rubbing it in and he growing hair all over his body. I can't seem to get much info on it. Does anyone know the comic # and year & month? --Doctorcherokee 21:05, 2 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]

I don't know, but the plot sounds almost identical to an I Love Lucy episode where she bought cans of beans with a guarantee "if these aren't the best beans ever, get double your money back". She then returned them, bought twice as many cans with the money, returned them, bought twice as many, etc. I wonder who ripped off whose idea. StuRat 21:57, 2 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]

The story you're referring to was first published in Donald Duck #35 (1954) and was republished in Donald Duck #147 (1973)--SeizureDog 00:03, 3 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]

On a side note, the bean episode StuRat is referring to is "Lucy the Bean Queen" from The Lucy Show, not I Love Lucy, and aired on September 26, 1966. So Donald did the joke over 10 years earlier, though I doubt he was the first.--SeizureDog 00:11, 3 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]

No problem. It wasn't too hard to find out; I just searched for "Donald Duck hair tonic comic" in Yahoo and it came right up.--SeizureDog 10:40, 4 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]

The hair tonic story was untitled originally published inDonald Duck #35 in May of 1954 is not by Carl Barks, it was by the "Other Good Duck Artist" possibly Walt Kelly?-- —Preceding unsigned comment added by 74.197.89.72 (talk) 17:03, 25 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]

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--Megapen (talk) 15:09, 19 May 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Care for a gander at global cooling

I've got a frustrating situation over at global cooling where the global warming crowd are denying that there's anybody currently holding that we're in the lead in for a bout of global cooling. Whether we are or not is beyond me but it's rather obvious from even a cursory google search that some people do believe it so. They don't want to talk about it. They don't want to give any reason for challenging. It's the same old run around of asking for sources for everything including where the sun rises and challenging the sourcing until one gives up. Global Cooling is interesting because it's not structured as entirely a science article but rather a combination science and popular press article. They're denying that the popular press has any articles on it. TMLutas (talk) 01:13, 12 October 2008 (UTC)[reply]

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When do you raise the rate on a certificate of deposit if there are unpredictable increases in interest rates?

A certain online bank has a 4-Year CD that allows you to increase your interest rate if rates go up. Over a CD's term of 4 years, this bank (if the interest rates go up) allows you to raise the rate up to the current rate TWICE over the four year period. For instance, if the rate is locked in at 2% for three years and the bank's 4-year CD rates rise to 2.5% at the end of the third year you can raise your CD's rate to 2.5% for the remainder of the term. You aren't required to raise your rate.

Let's say I get a CD at the interest rate right now. I'm not really expecting interest rates to rise anytime soon, but if they started to rise, what would be a good mathematical way of deciding when was the best time to use those TWO instances that I'm allowed?

I know there's probably not a simple solution, as it depends on many variables (much like the stock market), but is there some sort of mathematical reasoning that would take some of this into account and give me a nonrandom strategy of when to raise the rate? Perhaps a formula that assumes that rates will continue to rise? How about a formula that assumes nothing?

I'm just kind of confused as to the best time to raise the rate if rates start to rise. Sooner rather than later is my thought, but I don't know. Thanks for any help you can give.

173.247.7.89 (talk) 03:41, 23 October 2011 (UTC)[reply]

You need to have some sort of assumptions (there's work on how to minimize the so-called "weak regret" in multi-armed bandit problems with essentially no assumptions at all, but I don't think that applies here). Once you figure out the assumptions you want to make, describing the solution mathematically is straightforward, though actually finding the optimal solution could be very difficult.

Let's get warmed up with a simple case. The problem is continuous; you can change the rate at any time; the bank's interest rate is deterministic, and is known to increase linearly from

r_{0}

at the start to

r_{e}

after n years. I will use the continuous interest rate; the annual rate is

(\exp(r)-1)\cdot 100\%

. If you switch at

n_{1}

and

n_{2}

, then at the end you'll multiply your investment by

\exp \left(n_{1}r_{0}+(n_{2}-n_{1})(r_{0}+(r_{e}-r_{0})n_{1}/n)+(n_{e}-n_{2})(r_{0}+(r_{e}-r_{0})n_{2}/n)\right)

. The exponentiation is monotonic and can be ignored when optimizing (it will be important in the stochastic case); differentiating and equating to 0 gives the solution

n_{1}=n_{e}/3,\ n_{2}=2n_{3}/3

, so you'll want to update after 1y4m and 2y8m.

Now let's assume there's a discrete number n of terms, and the rate changes only after each term. I'll use the per-term interest; if the term is a month (or anything else) but you're given the annual rate you'll need to translate it. Even if the rate is really updated more frequently, you may want to use a small n to simplify the solution.

This time we will not assume the interest rate is known, rather that it follows some stochastic process. This still requires specification of the process; we'll assume Gaussian random walk which is very reasonable, which means that the interest rate each term changes by a normal variable with mean 0 and known variance

\sigma ^{2}

(which can be estimated from historic data). We want to maximize our expected savings at the end of n terms. We'll denote by

f(n,o,r,u)

our expected eventual savings, as a multiple of the current savings, given that we have n terms left, our current rate is o, the bank's current rate is r, and we have u switches left. Then f is given by some recurrence relations:

f(0,o,r,u)=1\,\!

f(n,o,r,0)=(1+o)^{n}\,\!

f(n,o,r,u)=\max \left((1+o)\int _{-\infty }^{\infty }{\frac {\exp(-x^{2}/(2\sigma ^{2}))}{{\sqrt {2\pi }}{\sigma }}}f(n-1,o,r+x,u),(1+r)\int _{-\infty }^{\infty }{\frac {\exp(-x^{2}/(2\sigma ^{2}))}{{\sqrt {2\pi }}{\sigma }}}f(n-1,r,r+x,u-1)\right)

Solving this exactly is probably impossible, but with a variety of techniques an approximation can be found for any given parameters.

I've run a simulation for

n=4,\ r_{0}=0.025,\ \sigma =0.002

. The approximate optimal strategy is:

After 1 year: Switch if $r>0.0251668$ .
After 2 years: If you haven't switched yet, switch if $r>0.025$ . If you have, switch if $r>o+0.0005329$ .
After 3 years: If you have a switch left, switch if $r>o$ .

We can also consider the continuous case where

n\to \infty

. Then the stochastic process becomes Brownian motion, and the recurrence relations become differential equations. I don't think it would be realistic to solve these, but we can approximate with a large but finite n. -- Meni Rosenfeld (talk) 12:02, 23 October 2011 (UTC)[reply]

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Fuel efficiency

[–]zonination 2 points 1 day ago (2|0) Hey there. Sorry to leave you in the dark. I appreciate your asking. It's really just a simple question of unit analysis. First, how much is your price per mile? You can find that by dividing your price per gallon by your miles per gallon. In effect, you get:

($ / gal) / (mi / gal) = ($ / mi)

(Mkt Price) / (Fuel Efficiency) = Cost Efficiency

Or, in simpler terms, the market price divided by the fuel efficiency is equal to the cost efficiency of the car (per mile). This will change if you're using a highway to get to the station, but that's generally not the case. Average city mileage for a car in the United States is 20 MPG, while the market price is currently $3.50 in Ohio. (You'll have to change the price almost daily if you want to get an accurate mileage).

The next thing we need to determine is, what's the net amount you're saving when you fill your tank with gas. Essentially, your nominal savings are:

(gal) * ($/gal - $/gal) = $/Tank

(Volume to fill) * (Price Difference) = (Savings)

In other words, you multiply the gas missing from your tank by the difference in price from using one gas station as opposed to another. This gives you the price difference between gas stations (i.e., the difference in the total on your receipt). I used a standard 12 gallon tank for a Honda Civic, which I currently drive, as well as a theoretical 10 cent difference in price between stations.

So now that we've covered that, we need to determine... how many miles will it take, in fuel efficiency, to balance out the cost of driving to the other station vs. what you save when you fill there?

Well, we set up the equation:

Savings = Cost Efficiency * Distance

So isolating distance from the equation, it turns out that:

Distance = Savings / (Cost Efficiency)

Or:

Distance = (Fuel Efficiency / Mkt Price) * (Volume to Fill) * (Price Difference)

And if you check my units, you'll find that everything cancels out except miles. In turn, I got 6.8 miles as the breakeven point, which I rounded down to be safe. You can tweak the settings to your specific region and your gas tank volume and your MPG. I'd recommend a spreadsheet.

As it currently stands, your MPG is probably one of the most variable factors in this equation, which is more incentive to either get a bigger volume tank, or to get something that's fuel efficient to drive. Happy math-ing!

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